The Birthday Problem

Okay, so probability theory says that any group of 23 people has a 50% chance that there is one pair of individuals that share a birthday. A group of 57 people has a 99% chance of a pair.

So, I need the first 23 people who look at this thread to simply post their birth date. If you don't feel like sharing with everyone, I'll at least need you to share with me in a PM. I promise that I will not tell! If we're lucky, maybe we can go further for a group of 57 or more, and see what happens...


Mine is: October 21st

June 24. Booya.

Mine is November 30th.

August 21st.

September 20th!

November 3rd!

May 23rd.

(My stepmother's birthday is the 21st August.)

October 10th!

(-brags about her birth date for this year in particular-)

November 28th.

September 10th

November 11th.

High five for everyone who has their birthday in November. November Rules

TimeOfTheEye wrote:August 21st.

August 21st for me too!

An alternative conclusion: more babies are born on the 21st of all months. We had 4 21st birthdays just in this sample.

To further add to what Chainlic3 said, I also think the 21st is magical. There are more posts on the 21st on FoG than on any other day!

That is if memory serves correctly. Just don't quote me on that.

That just may be the reason for so many birthdays matching up. They are all 21's :O. Hmm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

So, I wasn't going to check the mathematics (too lazy this morning), but I estimated from the graph that getting a match in a group of 14 people is about 20%, and we needed 14 people to find a match.

Now, I've taken classes on research and statistics for my Psychology degree, so I'm not going to say we can make any sort of conclusions. All we can say is that we had a match. A group of 14 people is hardly enough evidence to suggest that more people have birthdays on the 21st.

I'm not too big on statistics, but making conclusions sounds pretty moot to me. Already, this forum represents a certain group of people, with similar interests. This isn't random, it's already been selected. So the most we'll get out is how many fledgling authors have birthdays on the same date.

Or I could just be spewing crap, /shrug.

My birthday is January 6th. I guess I'm breaking the 21st mold?

Beware the ides of ... August?

Wait that can't be right. [looks at birth certificate] Yep 15th of August right in the ides of August. So yeah. Beware!

June 11th

Mine is November 3rd.

A match!!
Chainlinc3! Woot! xD

January 29

December 3.

This is really interesting.